Super Bowl 50: A Contrast of Quarterbacks

I’ve never been so satisfied by the outcome of a game that did not feature one of my favorite teams.  Why?  Because this time I was rooting for a player—Peyton Manning, the so-called “Sheriff” of the NFL.  Yesterday was the perfect culmination of an 18-year NFL career, vividly illustrating that most beautiful of narrative arcs:  the exaltation of the humble.  Here is a guy who has always done it “the right way.”  Of course, we hear that phrase frequently regarding various athletes, but nowhere is it more aptly applied than in the case of Manning.

Unfortunately, Cam Newton illustrated the inverse principle:  the arrogant shall be humbled.  Many of us cringed when we saw his pre-game garb, featuring flashy gold “MVP” shoes, which brought to mind the biblical proverb, “Let someone else praise you, and not your own mouth; an outsider, and not your own lips” (Pr. 27:2).  Then there was Newton’s post-game presser.  Ugh.  (Sports columnist Bill Reiter nails it here, I think.) Newton is not a bad guy.  He’s just an immature 26-year-old who needs to master his emotions in public.  He’ll grow up and hopefully become a model of professionalism.  Twenty years from now, he’ll cringe at how he behaved yesterday—just like

Biography.com
Biography.com

we all cringe at how we behaved in our twenties.  Thankfully, most of us don’t have our youthful petulance broadcast for millions of people to see!

Newton’s lack of maturity and composure serves as a sharp contrast to Peyton Manning’s classy comportment which he’s displayed his entire career (with a few exceptions), including after tough Super Bowl losses.  During the Broncos’ playoff run this post-season, Manning’s humility has been especially evident, as he’s consistently (and correctly) insisted that Denver’s defense was leading the team, rather than his QB prowess.  But this, too, contributed to the beauty of the Manning career narrative.  How fitting that he would conclude his career (yes, I’m assuming he’s retiring) by winning a Super Bowl on the strength of his team’s defense when for so many years Manning dominated at QB on a Colts team with a weak defense (which possibly cost him an additional ring or two).

Also, it is interesting to note that Manning’s final pass of the game yesterday was a completion for a 2-point conversion.  If that turns out to be the final pass of his career, then this too is fitting.  Not only was it perfectly thrown, but the 2-point conversion is, appropriately, a play that provides an “added bonus” point.  And that’s precisely what Peyton Manning has been, not just for NFL football but the sports world generally, for the better part of two decades—a real bonus.

So kudos to the Broncos for winning it all.  But especially congratulations to the class of the NFL, Peyton Manning.  Hats off to you, Sheriff, as you ride off into the sunset of a stellar career.

Super Bowl XLVIII Analysis

Super Bowl XLVIII is quickly approaching (or not so quickly, if you’re sick of all of the pre-game hype), so its time for me to weigh in with my own semi-informed analysis.  Those NFL fans who know me well actually care about this, because my track record for predicting Super Bowl outcomes is quite good.  I’ve picked 12 of the last 15 Super Bowls correctly.  So, let’s see if I can go 13 for 16.

Elaine Thompson / Associated Press
Elaine Thompson / Associated Press

Denver is a slight favorite in the game, but most of the pundits I have heard seem to be taking the Seahawks.  It’s the whole “good defense beats good offense” dogma, which fails in this case for several reasons, as I will explain.  I’m calling for a Broncos win, hopefully (as ever), in overtime.  I’ve been rooting for an overtime Super Bowl game since 1970.  Perhaps this year will be the year.  Anyway, here’s why I’m picking the Broncos:

  • The Denver offense is not just any good offense.  They’re historically great, led by the greatest NFL QB ever at the top of his game.  Not only that, Peyton Manning is wiser than ever.  He’s experienced two Super Bowls and knows, far better than his counter-part Russell Wilson, how to effectively prepare.  Wilson might be ready on Sunday, but Peyton Manning will be readier.
  • The Denver defense is playing well.  Not so much during the regular season, but definitely so far in the playoffs.  They shut down the run against both the Chargers and Pats (60 yards each).  They’ll key on Seattle’s run game and contain it (yes, even the “Beast Mode” Marshawn Lynch) and thus force them to pass, which won’t be easy considering what they did to pressure Brady last week.  The Broncos defense could be the story of SB48.  They’re under the radar now, but might not be for long.
  • The Seattle offense will only be as strong as Russell Wilson.  But can the 25-year-old Super Bowl virgin stand up under the pressure? Several others have won Super Bowls at that age (Montana, Brady, Roethlisberger, and Namath), but only because of the strength of their defenses (their teams scored an average of just 19 points).  Most have failed (e.g., Marino, Bledsoe, Kaepernick, etc.).  But, again, the key will be the Denver defense.  If they can rattle Wilson early, it could get ugly.  That would be a recipe for a Broncos route.
  • The distraction factor:  This definitely favors Denver because of the fallout over the Sherman debacle.  Don’t underestimate the negative effect this can have on the entire Seahawks team.  Such constant media pressure wears on even the most sturdy veterans.  And Marshawn Lynch’s games with the media (refusing to answer questions) is a further distraction.
  • Seattle nearly (probably should have) lost in the NFC championship game at home.  That tells me that the Niners would have won at home or even on a neutral field.  So the Broncos are not playing the NFC’s best.  This point is consistently overlooked or ignored by sports commentators (no doubt because it would detract from the drama of the game narrative).  The media often obscures truth, in sports as much as in politics.  It’s just less exasperating when mere sporting events (rather than human lives) are at stake.  But I digress.
  • The team leadership factor:  Give the edge to Denver here as well, because of Manning and Champ Bailey.
  • Coaching: Probably a draw.  But Fox is a steadier, more even-keeled coach than Carroll, which might work in Denver’s favor.  As Terry Bradshaw says, you need to be cool-headed going into the SB.  That’s exactly what Carroll and his team will not be two days from now.

Final Score:  Denver 27 Seattle 24 (in overtime, hopefully)

My Addiction to NFL Football

On this Super Bowl Eve I find myself reflecting again on the first Super Bowl I ever watched.  It was Super Bowl V between the Baltimore Colts and Dallas Cowboys:  I distinctly remember watching the Colts beat the Cowboys on a 10-yard Jim O’Brien field goal.  “The Colts–what a boring team,” I scoffed, “Who could ever cheer for them?”  Little did I know that I would eventually become a diehard Colts fan, albeit after the franchise’s notorious move to Indianapolis.  I was drawn into following NFL football that year (1970) by two of my brothers, and my hometown Detroit Lions had a very good season, making the playoffs as the NFC wild-card with a 10-4 record.  However, Dallas edged them 5-0 in the first round.  I cried.  But I was heartened a few weeks later when Dallas got theirs against the “boring” Colts.  Misery loves company—even for a 7-year-old.

Despite my following the game closely for more than four decades since, I recall that 1970 season better than any other NFL season.  It made a huge impression on me at several levels.  One game between my Lions and their division rival Minnesota Vikings was especially crushing.  Yet it was not as devastating as the one the week before against the New Orleans Saints, who upset the Lions on a record breaking 63-yard field goal by Tom Dempsey as time expired.  It haunts me to this day though, again ironically, I eventually became a Saints fan, too.  I know, I need therapy.

So what is it about this game that fascinates so many of us, even to the point that we find ourselves watching highlights of old games on You Tube, reliving the most heartbreaking losses of our sports fan lives?  I have no idea.  Aristotle would say it’s about catharsis—purging negative emotions through experiencing (or re-experiencing) the “tragedy” of tough losses.  Perhaps.  Maybe there is some other explanation.  All I know is that I’m an addict of NFL football and will be for life.  And tomorrow’s Super Bowl will be yet another opportunity to revel in the biggest game of the year.  Regardless of the outcome, it’s another chance to take solace in the fact that a lot of other people share my disappointment that our teams didn’t win it all this year.  Like I said, I need therapy.

Oh, and by the way, I’m picking the Ravens in the game tomorrow:  23-20.  In overtime!

Super Bowl XLV Prediction

Its now Super Bowl eve, and I can’t keep America waiting any longer for my prediction.  Over the last twelve years, I’ve correctly predicted ten Super Bowls.  That’s a good record, but I want to improve it, and this year’s contest between the Steelers and Packers makes that difficult.  The two teams appear to be evenly matched, but I feel pretty confident that Green Bay will prevail.  In fact, I won’t be surprised if the Packers run away with it.  (Having said that, the last time Pittsburgh played in the Super Bowl, I wrongly picked against them.  So perhaps they will foil me again.)

Here are my reasons for siding with the Cheeseheads:

1. The Law of Averages — Pittsburgh has won six of the seven Super Bowls in which they’ve appeared.  Other things being equal, one should expect a franchise’s win/loss record in Super Bowls to be approximately .500.  A Steelers loss tomorrow will provide some correction in that direction.

2. The Better Quarterback — Ben Roethlisberger is a skilled QB, to be sure, and he has a strong playoff record.  But the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers is in top form at this point and superior to Big Ben in key respects.  He’s the more accurate passer and he’s more fleet of foot, which should help to neutralize the Steelers’ pass defense.  Look for Rodgers to avoid numerous sacks and find receivers while scrambling out of the pocket.  I also expect the Packers to come out passing rather than trying to establish the run.  The Steelers’ run defense is one of the best in the league, so the Packers would be foolish to build their game plan around the run.

3. Superior Pass Defense — Green Bay’s pass defense is peaking at the right time and should cause serious problems for Big Ben.  Defensive back Tramon Williams has been on fire in the playoffs, making game changing interceptions against both the Eagles and Falcons.  Look for this to continue against the Steelers tomorrow.

4. Key Injury — The Steelers Pro-Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey has been scratched for the big game, due to a high ankle sprain.  In his place, back-up Doug Legursky will have his first NFL start in the Super Bowl.  Gulp.  Legursky struggled mightily in the AFC championship game against the Jets after Pouncey went out of the game.  This will provide a significant edge for Green Bay’s defense, which is menacing enough as is.

5. Recent Performances — Green Bay is on a major role, having won three consecutive playoff games on the road, including a blow out against the top-seeded Falcons.  And while it can’t be said that the Steelers don’t deserve to be in the Super Bowl this year, their play has been inconsistent recently.  They played a poor first half against the Ravens in the divisional playoff, just squeaking by with a victory at home.  And two weeks ago against the Jets they nearly squandered a huge lead.  Such droughts will be much more difficult to overcome on a neutral field against a stronger Green Bay squad.

Final Score:  Green Bay 27  Pittsburgh 19